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Update: Election Night Analysis

Date: 11/06/2012

12:27 a.m.

According to information downloaded from the State Board of Elections, the unofficial results do NOT include absentee ballots cast in 28 localities. These AB ballots total more than 250,000 votes.

Here is the list analyzed by VPAP:

Locality

# of Absentee Ballots

  • Albemarle County   5,944
  • Alexandria City  15,828
  • Arlington County  28,404
  • Bedford County  2,829
  • Caroline County  1,099
  • Carroll County  992
  • Chesapeake City  11,851
  • Clarke County  790
  • Fairfax City  1,794
  • Fairfax County 81,273
  • Fluvanna County 1,617
  • Frederick County 2,500
  • Goochland County 1,401
  • Hanover County 4,577
  • James City County  5,989
  • Mecklenburg County  1,594
  • Newport News City 5,238
  • Norfolk City 6,301
  • Petersburg City 2,794
  • Portsmouth City 3,482
  • Prince William County 25,228
  • Richmond City 5,944
  • Roanoke City 3,232
  • Spotsylvania County 6,122
  • Staunton City 1,023
  • Suffolk City 5,583
  • Virginia Beach City 20,402
  • York County 3,393

11:57 p.m.

Precincts Remaining:

  • Prince William - 22
  • Virginia Beach - 19
  • Norfolk - 13
  • Fairfax County - 9
  • Portsmouth - 2
  • Spotsylvania County - 5
  • Lynchburg - 4
  • Dinwiddie - 2
  • King William - 2
  • Roanoke City - 2
  • Alexandria - 1
  • Bedford County - 1
  • Henry County - 1
  • Pittsylvania - 1 
  • Richmond City - 1

11:50 p.m.

Obama - 1,715,067

Romney - 1,662,500

  • Prince William - 30
  • Norfolk - 27
  • Frederick County - 21
  • Virginia Beach - 19
  • Fairfax County - 18
  • Portsmouth - 10
  • Spotsylvania County - 5
  • Lynchburg - 4
  • Dinwiddie - 2
  • King William - 2
  • Roanoke City - 2
  • Alexandria - 1
  • Bedford County - 1
  • Chesapeake - 1
  • Henry County - 1
  • Montgomery - 1
  • Pittsylvania - 1 
  • Richmond City - 1
  • Surry - 1
  • Sussex - 1

11:32 p.m.

Obama - 1,624,579

Romney - 1,594,426

According to the SBE, here are precincts remaining:

  • Norfolk - 40
  • Prince William - 35
  • Virginia Beach - 35
  • Fairfax County - 29
  • Frederick County - 21
  • Portsmouth - 14
  • Spotsylvania County - 7
  • Lynchburg - 4
  • Dinwiddie - 2
  • King William - 2
  • Roanoke City - 2
  • Alexandria - 1
  • Bedford County - 1
  • Chesapeake - 1
  • Henry County - 1
  • Mecklenburg - 1
  • Montgomery - 1
  • Pittsylvania - 1 
  • Richmond City - 1
  • Suffolk 1 
  • Surry - 1
  • Sussex - 1

11:05 p.m.

In narrow presidential contest, Hispanic vote could prove crucial.

Obama's numbers were up across the board in six precincts in Northern Virginia where the population is 40 percent or more Hispanic, according to the 2010 Census.

  • Arlington: Arlington Mill - 84% for Obama (+5.9 percentage points from 2008)
  • Fairfax: Lynbrook -- 67% for Obama (+5.8 percentage points)
  • Fairfax: Westlawn -- 66% for Obama (+3.9 percentage points)
  • Fairfax: Willston -- 73% for Obama (+9.0 percentage points)
  • Prince William: Potomac View -- 59% for Obama (+2.1 percentage points)
  • Prince William: Kilby -- 71% for Obama (+3.9 percentage points)

10:11 p.m.

Shenandoah Valley glows ruby red.

The GOP presidential candidate improved his margin in this rock-ribbed conservative region:

  • Augusta County - 70.3% (up 0.9 points)
  • Rockingham County - 69.6% (up 2.2 points)
  • Shenandoah County - 65.1% (up 2.6 points)

9:40 p.m.

Obama appears to be holding his overwhelming margins in predominately black, inner-city precincts.

Here are early returns for five precincts:

  • Richmond #602 - 99.1% of vote in 2008; 99.3% in 2012
  • Richmond #802 - 98.6% in 2008; 98.9% in 2012
  • Newport News Dunbar - 99.1% in 2008; 98.7% in 2012
  • Newport News Jefferson - 99.4% in 2008; 99.1% in 2012
  • Petersburg #601 - 97.8% in 2008; 97.83% in 2012

More importantly for Obama, turnout appeared to be up in three of five precincts.

9:21 p.m.

Hear the coalfields roar for the GOP.

All precincts reporting in Buchanan and Dickenson counties:

  • Buchanan County -- 49.2% for Republican John McCain in 2008; 66.7% for Romney in 2012 (Turnout jumped from 54% to 58%)
  • Dickenson County - 52.0% for Republican McCain in 2008; 62.0% for Romney in 2012 (Turnout fell from 59.9% to 57.3%)

9:06 p.m.

Some good news for Romney in Loudoun County, a key Northern Virginia battleground. The gains Obama has shown in the Richmond area do not appear holding in Loudoun County.

Comparing 2008 and 2012 results are difficult in Loudoun because so the county shifted so many precinct boundaries. But Loudoun is showing returns for five counties that George W. Bush carried by 55% or more in 2004 and Obama carried -- barely -- in 2008.

Obama's margin is down in all give precincts:

  • Greenway - 53.3% in 2008; 52.4% in 2012
  • Dry Mill - 51.2% in 2008; 48.14 in 2012
  • Sugarland North - 52.2% in 2008; 50.6% in 2012
  • Russell Branch - 55.0% in 2008; 52.3% in 2012
  • Cedar Lane - 55.2% in 2008; 53.9 in 2012

8:46 p.m.

Obama's suburban trend appears to be holding in the Richmond area.

Obama held to three suburban Henrico County precincts -- one in West End and two in Lakeside -- that went for George W. Bush by 55% or more in 2004 and that Obama barely carried in 2008. Obama increased his margins slightly in each precinct:

  • Johnson - 50.9 % in 2008; 52% in 2012
  • Brookland - 53.0% in 2008; 55.3% in 2012
  • Pemberton - 50.6% in 2008; 51.0% in 2012

8:33 p.m.


Some early returns from suburban Chesterfield County appear to be good news for Obama.

Obama held onto five precincts that he barely won in 2008 and that four years early went for George W. Bush with 55% or greater of the vote.

Returns from the SBE show that Obama has increased his margin slightly in each of the four precincts.

  • Harrowgate - Obama won 50.9% in 2008 and 51.6% in 2012
  • Bird - Obama won 57.6%in 2008 and 59.2% in 2012
  • Five Forks - Obama won 55% in 2008 and 57.9% in 2012
  • Shenandoah - Obama won 50.1%b in 2008 and 51.3% in 2012
VPAP is monitoring similar precincts around the state -- those that went for Bush by 55% or greater in 2004 but won by Obama in 2008.