U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., has plenty of money and time as the field of Republican challengers narrows two months before the GOP Senate primary on June 18.
Kaine, seeking his third Senate term, has raised more than $13 million for his re-election campaign, including $2.5 million in the quarter that ended on March 31, and had nearly $8.8 million in the bank, according to reports filed this week at the Federal Election Commission.
“Kaine is just very strong,” said Larry Sabato, president of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Retired U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao appears to be pulling ahead in the Republican nominating contest that has narrowed from eight to five candidates. Cao, who lost a congressional race to Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-10th, by 6 percentage points two years ago, has raised $2 million to challenge Kaine, including $811,511 in the last quarter.
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“You can never rule out anything in a low-turnout primary, but he is the frontrunner for the Republicans,” Sabato said.
Cao had $571,261 in cash on hand at the end of March, about $200,000 more than Club for Growth executive Scott Parkinson, who’s raised $841,133, including $180,000 in the last quarter, and had $371,950 in the bank. Parkinson is followed by Fairfax County lawyer Jonathan Emord, who has raised more than $776,000, including $341,600 in loans he’s made to the campaign.
Former Virginia Beach GOP Chairman Chuck Smith, a former candidate for state attorney general, has raised $509,949, including more than $100,000 in the last quarter, but had just $24,516 in cash on hand at the end of March. Eddie Garcia has raised almost $300,000 but had less than $17,000 in the bank at the end of the quarter.
The outlook is much the same in congressional elections across Virginia, with incumbents staked to big fundraising advantages in most contests,
Competitive primary in 5th
An exception is in the 5th District, where Rep. Bob Good, R-5th, is trying to hold off an aggressive challenge by newly elected state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland. McGuire is getting a big boost from former President Donald Trump, whose campaign has taken aim at Good for endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis early in the presidential primary campaign.
Good endorsed Trump immediately after DeSantis dropped out of the presidential campaign earlier this year, but the House race already has featured face-to-face confrontations between the congressman, who is chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, and McGuire and Trump supporters in the district.
“It’ll get uglier — that’s a firm prediction,” said Sabato, who lives in the district in Charlottesville.
The FEC reports show Good with a fundraising lead at $307,616 for the quarter, $860,322 for the cycle and $427,342 in the bank. McGuire’s campaign committee raised $290,326 for the quarter, $502,747 for the cycle; and had $351,812 in the bank.
McGuire said he’s outpacing Good after including money raised through a leadership political action committee and joint fundraising committee. Through the three committees, his campaign says it has raised a total of $325,087 in the quarter and $560,925 in the cycle.
Wittman outpaces challengers
Other incumbents have clear financial advantage in contested races. Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st, raised $415,274 in the quarter and more than $1.7 million in the cycle. Wittman, seeking his ninth full term after winning a special election in 2007, had almost $1.6 million in cash on hand at the end of March.
In contrast, two Democratic challengers trail Wittman badly. Herb Jones, who lost to Wittman two years ago, raised $45,796 in the quarter and $144,230 in the cycle. He reported a cash balance of $267,799 at the end of March. Leslie Mehta, a former civil rights lawyer who formally launched her campaign in early January, raised $129,966 in the quarter and $135,261 for the cycle. Mehta reported $76,298 in cash on hand at the end of March.
Kiggans out front in 2nd
Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-2nd, also has a commanding financial advantage, having raised $3 million, with almost $1.8 million in the bank. In contrast, Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal has raised $509,535 and had $299,075 in hand, and Democrat Jake Denton has raised $210,215, with $127,931 in the bank.
“That’s a big gap,” Sabato said.
Two of the most competitive congressional races are unfolding in Northern Virginia districts with no returning incumbent.
In the 7th, anchored in eastern Prince William County and the Fredericksburg area, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, is running for governor next year instead of re-election to the House of Representatives. In the 10th, rooted in Loudoun County, Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-10th, is retiring because of serious health concerns.
Dems in the 7th
The campaigns in the 7th feature seven Democrats, after one dropped out, and six Republicans, after four candidates withdrew.
The Democratic field includes two Prince William supervisors, a sitting member of the House of Delegates and a former member of the House, as well as candidate with a national profile, Eugene Vindman, whose twin brother, Alexander, gave testimony against Trump in the former president’s first impeachment trial.
Eugene Vindman, like his brother, served in the White House for the National Security Council and, as deputy legal adviser, also was involved in allegations that Trump had tried to tie U.S. aid to Ukraine in exchange for information to use in his 2020 campaign against Democrat Joe Biden, who won the presidency.
Vindman, who already is a target for national Republicans, has a wide lead in fundraising. He raised more than $1.7 million in the quarter; almost $3.8 million in the cycle and reported more than $1.8 million in the bank at the end of March.
“He’s got a ton of money because he’s a national fundraiser,” Sabato said.
However, he cautioned that Vindman faces formidable opposition from candidates with experience in elected office that he lacks.
“That’s a strong group of candidates,” Sabato said.
Andrea Bailey, supervisor of Prince William’s Potomac District, has $188,000 in the bank just seven weeks after launching her campaign, in which she has raised $408,497. Margaret Angela Franklin, supervisor for the Woodbridge District, reported $140,795 in the bank after raising $118,452 in the quarter and $241,346 in the cycle.
Former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, D-Prince William, raised $161,390 in the quarter and $204,979 in the cycle, with $147,800 cash on hand. Del. Briana Sewell, D-Prince William, raised $71,370 in the quarter and $172,724 overall, with $55,357 in the bank at the end of March.
GOP in the 7th
On the Republican side, former Green Beret Derrick Anderson appears to have the advantage in fundraising and name recognition after finishing a surprise second in the 7th District GOP primary two years ago. Anderson, a native of Spotsylvania County, has picked up high-profile endorsements, including that of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and has raised a total of $888,595, with $581,000 in the bank.
His closest GOP rival, former Navy SEAL combat veteran Cameron Hamilton, has raised $499,810 in the cycle and had $175,539 in the bank at the end of March.
12 Dems vie in the 10th
The Democratic field is even bigger in the 10th with 12 candidates, including former House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, D-Fairfax, and five current members of the General Assembly. Del. Dan Helmer, D-Fairfax, leads in fundraising with more than $1.1 million and $815,219 in the bank, while Filler-Corn has raised almost $760,000 and had $434,591 in cash on hand.
Krystle Kaul, a former Department of Defense official, has raised $930,000, including $552,509 in loans she made to the campaign, and had $607,793 in hand at the end of March.
State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Loudoun, who previously served in the House, has raised $679,183 and had $574,613 in the bank.
The field also includes Sen. Jennifer Boysko, D-Fairfax; Del. David Reid, D-Loudoun; Del. Michelle Maldonado, D-Prince William; and former Secretary of Education Atif Qarni.
Clancy leads GOP field
Among the four GOP candidates in the 10th, Mike Clancy, a technology executive in eastern Loudoun who ran for the nomination two years ago, leads in fundraising. He’s raised $347,160 for the cycle, including $250,000 he lent the campaign, and had $240,674 in the bank at the end of March. Aliscia Andrews, who lost to Wexton by 13 percentage points in 2020 and later served as a deputy secretary under Gov. Glenn Youngkin, has raised $106,494 and had $115,835 in cash on hand.