By Scott A. Surovell
There’s been a lot of Monday-morning quarterbacking about how firearm violence prevention played in Virginia elections this year. Let’s look at the two state Senate races where the issue played a central role: Senate District 10 in the Richmond area and Senate District 29 in Prince William County. In both races, gun safety was either the winning factor or helped tighten a race in a previously non-competitive GOP-held district.
First, polling in and outside of Virginia shows more than 85 percent of Americans support common-sense firearms-violence prevention rules such as universal background checks or keeping firearms out of the hands of criminals. Notwithstanding that, the NRA and other groups continue to give “F” ratings to any elected official who dare to support reasonable safeguards on weapon acquisition.
In Senate District 29, only a few miles from the NRA’s Fairfax headquarters, gun safety was the issue that put the victor, Democratic candidate Jeremy McPike, over the top. Hal Parrish, the NRA “A”-rated, popular mayor with high name recognition, was handpicked by the GOP to win an open seat but was soundly defeated by McPike, an NRA “F”-rated candidate who had never held elected office.
Parrish consistently led in pre-election polls until Parrish’s unpopular gun positions and his inability to articulate what he would do to keep firearms out of the hands of dangerous criminals were exposed to voters. Phone calls, door knocks and television ads on firearm-violence prevention narrowed the gap, solidified undecided voters and moved a race that began within the margin of error to an 8 percent win in McPike’s favor. That spread is the new price to be paid for sticking by the gun lobby and being out of step with Virginia voters.
In Senate District 10, Republicans kept an open seat they held for 17 years. Glen Sturtevant, the NRA-backed candidate won — but by a margin of less than 3 percent, fewer than 1,500 votes. Four years ago, John Watkins won by 12 percent, 4,300 votes.
Even in Powhatan County — the most conservative county in the district – Sturtevant underperformed his predecessor by 4 percent.
While blaming one issue for winning or losing elections is an interesting political parlor game, it is a vast oversimplification for a process that divines the intentions of more than 30,000 people. The focus on gun safety actually made District 10 a tighter, tougher fight for the Republicans than it should have been, closing the gap to a spread much closer than the prognosticators were expecting.
What does this mean for the future of gun politics in Virginia?
While the GOP maintained its Senate majority, Northern Virginia has almost completely shifted away from the NRA’s position on guns. The rest of Virginia is not far behind.
GOP candidates in competitive districts would be wise to take note of Tuesday’s results and Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s (D) victory in 2013 and tread carefully when it comes to steadfast support for the gun industry. The D.C. sniper, Virginia Tech and the on-air assassination of Alison Parker and Adam Ward have brought firearm violence to every corner of Virginia. Virginia voters understand firearm-violence prevention — and now they are voting on it.
While the gun-safety crowd didn’t take home all the marbles, it clearly is gaining ground. This is, in part, because a lot of money was spent but also because thousands of Virginians were motivated to vote for candidates willing to stand up to the gun lobby. Guns are driving people to the polls, but in a twist on conventional wisdom, the voters heading to the polls are now voting for the candidates looking for ways to reduce gun violence.
The gun issue — once considered a political third rail — is becoming safer and safer, and, as Jeremy McPike can attest, is even an issue to run on and win on. In the land of the NRA, that is nothing to sneeze at.
The writer, a Democrat, represents Fairfax in the Virginia House of Delegates. He was elected to represent the 36th District in the Virginia Senate on Tuesday.
