VPAP Index

How each General Assembly district leans Republican or Democratic compared to Virginia as a whole. Methodology

Methodology:The VPAP Index ranks each of Virginia's state legislative and congressional districts based on the estimated performance of the 2021 gubernatorial candidates in each district. The results are expressed as the gap between Republican and Democratic performance. For instance, "+15-R" means that Republican Glenn Youngkin finished 15 percentage points ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe.

The Index is based on estimated results. Estimation is necessary because election officials do not publish gubernatorial results by legislative district. Calculating the result by legislative district is possible but requires complete precinct-level results. But elevated early voting — one in three ballots cast — means that complete precinct results are unavailable in most Virginia localities. (Early votes were tabulated in a centralized system at a locality level. Most localities could not reallocate the early votes back to the geographic precincts where voters live.)

VPAP developed a method to reallocate absentee votes back to precincts. We compared our results with other methods and concluded that ours produces a reasonably accurate estimate of results by legislative and congressional districts. Details about our methodology.

As with any estimate, there is a level of imprecision. Our display makes it clear which districts are based solely on actual results and which ones rely on estimates.