An exceptionally dry fall is bringing drought conditions to wide swaths of the southeastern U.S. and Virginia.
According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, 71% of the state’s population — about 5.6 million people — was in a drought as of Tuesday. Over 99% of the state’s population is in abnormally dry conditions.
Gov. Ralph Northam announced a statewide drought watch in a news release Friday morning. Citizens and localities are being encouraged to make plans for a possible drought.
“More than half of our Commonwealth is currently experiencing a water deficit, which can have lasting agricultural, economic, and environmental impacts,” Northam said in the release.
Most of Hampton Roads is only facing abnormally dry conditions as of now, said National Weather Service Wakefield meteorologist in charge Jeff Orrock. But moderate drought conditions are creeping in toward Franklin and Surry County and across the peninsulas.
As of Thursday, about 60% of the southeast is in a drought, and about 25% is in a severe drought.
The hardest hit areas so far are in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. Victor Murphy, climate services program manager for the NWS Southern Region Headquarters, said Thursday in a webinar hosted by NIDIS that parts of the region saw nearly no measurable rain in September.
A number of counties, including some in far southwest Virginia, saw their driest Septembers on record this year. Additionally, it was one of the warmest Septembers on record nationwide.
“The first 10 days of October have only exacerbated things,” Murphy said.
According to Murphy, an unusually persistent area of high pressure over the southeast has reinforced the dry pattern.
“Higher temperatures and less consistent precipitation patterns driven by climate change are making extreme weather like droughts more prevalent around the world, and Virginia is no exception,” said Matthew Strickler, the state’s secretary of natural resources, in the news release.
Hampton Roads has avoided the worst of the drought conditions in the state, mostly in the southwest and southern portions, thanks to tropical weather.
Hurricane Dorian dumped a significant amount of rain, particularly on southern Hampton Roads. Norfolk recorded 1.86 inches of rain Sept. 6, according to Orrock.
This has helped keep drought conditions at bay. But in parts of the region where Dorian had less of an impact, particularly the peninsulas and to the west, rainfall totals have been much lower, meaning they’re closer to drought condition.
The whole region has been almost dry since Dorian. Norfolk hasn’t seen any appreciable rain since Sept. 13, according to the NWS.
Right now, Hampton Roads is seeing mixed effects, Orrock said. Leaves have started to brown and drop earlier than normal, decreasing the amount of fall color.
It has had an impact on agriculture locally. Although dry conditions make it easier to harvest some crops planted early in the growing season, such as corn and cotton, it could have a negative effect on later crops like soybeans.
“It’s lasted long enough where I think we’re seeing mixed effects, but anything that was trying to grow since early September has kind of gotten shut down,” Orrock said.
The biggest issue Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, has observed regionally is with hay and pastures for livestock.
Knox said in Thursday’s webinar that hay hasn’t grown well, meaning less food for cattle and livestock over the winter. Poor pastures have led farmers to turn to hay early to feed animals.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress and condition report for Virginia, released Monday, reported about 39% of pasture is in “very poor” condition.
Some farmers are culling livestock early, which Knox says could flood the market with meat and decrease prices. Meanwhile, prices associated with hay are going up.
“Economically, it’s going to be a huge loss,” Knox said.
The dry conditions have raised concerns about the potential for fires. According to the governor’s office, 36 localities have issued open burn bans as a precaution.
No localities in Hampton Roads have. Orrock said high humidity has mostly kept fire risks at bay.
“We’re going to need some long-term soaking rains, and that’s just not going to happen,” Orrock said. “We’re just hoping to get some scattered showers next week.”
The governor’s office recommends citizen across the state minimize nonessential water use, review local water conservation plans and continue to monitor conditions.
Winter is when most of the area’s groundwater is replenished, so Orrock said the NWS will be monitoring the situation closely. A dry winter could set the stage for low groundwater levels, increased fire risks and a difficult growing season.
“If we don’t start to move into a wetter pattern over the course of the next three months, it could start to set up for kind of a rough spring,” Orrock said.