Data from across the United States suggests the nation is on the cusp of another surge of coronavirus infections, the anticipated “second wave” that health officials have warned of since the pandemic began.
While Virginia has reduced most of its metrics since posting some worrisome numbers around Labor Day, this is a critical hour for the commonwealth, one that demands vigilance. We cannot afford to let our guard down now, despite the overwhelming desire to see things return to normal.
On Sept. 12, the seven-day average of new U.S. cases dipped below 35,000 for the first time since June. The all-important seven-day positivity rate declined to less than 5%, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, which is a useful metric for determining community spread.
Since then, however, both figures have been on a steady incline, driven largely by outbreaks in western states. According to the Washington Post last week, 20 states have in recent days posted their highest single-day numbers for new cases, leading to the United States recording more than 70,000 cases on Friday.
The good news, if anyone can consider it as such, is that the spike in new infections hasn’t translated into an increase in coronavirus deaths. The seven-day average hovers around 700, down from a high of 2,800 in late April.
Virginia is seeing many of these same trends, though the surge is not as severe here as it is in the West and Midwest. New cases are ticking upward across the commonwealth, and the seven-day positivity rate hovers around 5%.
However, COVID-related hospitalizations are on the rise in Virginia, which is cause for concern. Remember the social distancing guidelines and other recommendations were implemented to protect the health-care system from being overrun by infections, so officials will be monitoring that data closely.
When Gov. Ralph Northam spoke at a press conference last week, his first appearance since he and his wife tested positive for the virus, he emphasized those safety guidelines and their effectiveness in slowing the spread of infection.
These include wearing a facemask around other people and when indoors, maintaining social distance from others in the community, avoiding large gatherings and frequent hand washing. None of these alone is a magic bullet to stop the spread of coronavirus, but together they represent the best way to insulate yourself from illness.
The governor also urged Virginians to get a flu shot, which is an important message as the flu season ramps up. Health officials worry that a surge in coronavirus cases coupled with the hospitalizations associated with an average flu season could stretch the limits of hospital capacity.
Another fear: As the daylight grows shorter and the weather turns colder, people will be indoors more, even in our relatively mild climate. And as the pandemic drags on, the temptation will grow to cut corners on many of the protocols which helped manage the virus in recent months.
Halloween is days away, which has some officials preaching caution, while Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s loom in the coming weeks. Those holidays often involve travel and large indoor gatherings — the sort of conditions favorable for increased coronavirus transmission.
There are promising developments from the on-going vaccine trials, inspiring hope that something will be ready for mass inoculation soon — but the likelihood is that it will be months, if not another year, before millions of Americans have access to a coronavirus vaccine.
So, as difficult as it may be to accept, we must stay the course. That’s more important than ever.
We must continue to avoid large gatherings, to wear facemasks, to stay clear of indoor spaces with poor ventilation, to maintain social distance and continue to practice good hygiene. We need to quarantine when a COVID infection is possible and isolate if it is confirmed. We should get flu shots.
Another difficult stretch is here, and we must all do our part to get through it.
