Virginia’s tradition of holding legislative elections in “off years” — that is, in years different than congressional or presidential elections — means that commonwealth voters always have another election on the horizon.
This year the timing could prove problematic. The U.S. Census Bureau confirmed earlier this month it will not transmit data from last year’s population count until September, which all but ensures that House of Delegates races will take place using the current maps rather than new ones.
It also raises the prospect that Virginia could vote for lawmakers this November, next year under new maps and again in 2023. Given the cost and potential for turmoil, it’s time the commonwealth seriously consider moving its elections to even-number years.
Census officials cited two problems in explaining the delay in reporting its data. The coronavirus proved to be a daunting impediment to counting, limiting the ability of canvassers to interact with residents. And the bureau reported processing anomalies with some of the data, which it says happens in every decennial count.
The Census Bureau also faced unprecedented interference from the Trump administration, which sought to eliminate undocumented immigrants from the data and pressured officials to provide numbers used for House of Representatives reapportionment before the new administration took office.
The numbers used for reapportionment — the division of the 435 U.S. House seats based on state population — are now expected in April. But the granular data needed for state-level redistricting isn’t likely until September.
That ties the hands of Virginia and New Jersey, the other state with off-year legislative elections. Twenty-five other states have constitutional or statutory requirements to conduct redistricting the year after a census, a schedule imperiled by the reporting delays.
Another wildcard: Virginia’s new redistricting commission, which was set to begin its work this year. Del. Marcus Simon, D-Fairfax, is one of eight lawmakers on that commission and told The Washington Post earlier this month, “It’s just practically impossible to get the data in time to go through the process and draw districts and conduct an election under new maps.”
That’s a tremendous disappointment, given the enthusiastic endorsement the constitutional amendment creating the commission earned in November’s election. Nearly 66% of voters supported the measure.
Virginia lawmakers, now meeting in Richmond, have begun discussion about how to proceed. There are several options to consider.
Elections this year are almost certain to proceed as scheduled and are likely to use existing maps. The big question is whether those would be for full two-year terms, or whether all 100 delegate seats should be up for election again next year — meaning they would coincide with elections for U.S. House.
Some advocates have called for elections in 2022, and that the change be made permanent. They argue the higher turnout for federal elections — particularly when there’s a presidential race on the ballot — will mean legislative elections are a more accurate reflection of Virginians’ political will. They also cite the cost of having elections every year.
Those are compelling arguments. The commonwealth’s election schedule came about in the aftermath of the Civil War, when Virginia adopted a new Constitution, rather than by some grand design.
And while the odd-year votes do distinguish Virginia from its peers, it also means our elections receive considerable attention from the national political establishment, meaning outside money and consultants who don’t always have our citizens’ best interests in mind.
The most important thing is that such a decision not be made hastily and that it includes input from across the commonwealth. The last thing Virginia needs is chaos in its elections or wholesale changes to the democratic process happening arbitrarily or without public debate.
These issues may seem dry or technical, but they are the very foundation of ensuring fair representation for everyone in the commonwealth. The census problems have done Virginia no favors, but how the commonwealth responds will shape the state’s future for years to come.
