Fueled by the highly contagious delta variant, new cases of COVID-19 nearly doubled over the past week across 10 Northeast Tennessee counties when compared to the previous week.
This region appears poised for a “significant” rise in COVID-19 cases, a local health official warned Tuesday.
Dr. Stephen May, medical director of the Sullivan County Regional Health Department, said the recent arrival of the highly contagious delta variant in a region where more than six in 10 people aren’t vaccinated against the virus could equal a dangerous pattern.
“We’ve got the perfect storm brewing,” May said Tuesday. “We’ve got back to school going on, we just finished [Kingsport’s] Fun Fest, we’ve got [Bristol] Rhythm & Roots coming, we’ve got a big race coming up, and we’re just not using any type of safety measures out in the community right now.
“As a result, we are primed — because of all these activities, the delta variant, coming back to school — for a pretty significant uptick in cases. And, of course, hospitalizations follow cases, as do the deaths,” May said.
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Last week, Fun Fest attracted thousands to outdoor concert venues at a time when Sullivan County’s case rate has doubled, its seven-day testing positivity rate is second highest in the region and there are hundreds of active cases region-wide, according to the Tennessee Department of Health.
The other upcoming events May mentioned typically attract crowds in the thousands from both in and outside the area.
Local schools are expected to return to primarily in-person learning next month. On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control issued new recommendations that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the U.S. where the coronavirus is surging.
Last week, the Virginia health and education departments urged school districts to require students, teachers and staff to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccination status and “at a minimum” require unvaccinated middle and high school students, teachers and staff to wear masks indoors. Tennessee education officials have said it will be a local choice.
Since March 2020, the region has sustained two significant surges in COVID cases; the first and deadliest began last November and continued into January. The second was in March and April, when the UK or B.1.1.7 variant swept through this region.
“I don’t think we’ll see what we saw in December, but all our numbers are headed in the wrong direction. Case counts are up, hospitalizations are up,” May said. “The way to fix this is with vaccine,” May said.
Ballad Health reported 44 COVID-positive inpatients Tuesday — the most since early June and more than double the 20 treated July 5. Ten of them are in intensive care units, with seven on ventilators.
“Greater than 95% to 98% of all cases that wind up in the hospital are unvaccinated individuals; that right there is your answer to why you should get the vaccine,” May said. “To those who are reticent to consider the vaccine, we have given out multimillions of doses across the United States, and it is extremely safe, and it works. That’s the real answer.”
However, this region continues lagging further behind state and the national vaccination rate averages.
“About 40% of our [Sullivan County] population is vaccinated, but the biggest deficit is in primarily younger folks — those from ages 12 to 40. That is a huge group we need to be getting vaccine in, in an effort to prevent further spread of the disease,” May said.
As of Tuesday, 37% of this region’s residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the Tennessee and Virginia departments of health. That figure has increased just 5 percentage points over the past six weeks. About 38% of this region’s residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
The two Washington counties sported the region’s highest rates, with the Tennessee county reporting 50.4% with one dose and 46.3% fully vaccinated. Its Virginia counterpart reported 45.9% with at least one dose and 41.7% fully vaccinated.
Sullivan was the only other Northeast Tennessee county with 40% of residents fully vaccinated, while three counties — Carter and sparsely populated Hancock and Johnson counties were below 30%, according to the Tennessee Department of Health.
Mostly rural Lee County has the lowest vaccination rates in the entire state of Virginia, at 33.4% with one dose and 29.2% fully vaccinated, according to the Virginia Department of Health. However, Lee also reported 17 new cases of COVID-19 over the past seven days.
Tennessee ranks 44th nationally with 39% of its residents fully vaccinated, according to CDC data compiled by the Becker’s Hospital Review website.
Virginia ranks 14th nationally with more than 53% of residents fully vaccinated and 59% with at least one injection.
Nationwide, 49% of Americans are fully vaccinated against the virus.
“The vaccine is not 100% effective, particularly in those who are immunocompromised. They have risks from going into the hospital and having complications from it,” May said, adding “the way to fix this and make it go away is to get vaccines into as many arms as possible.”