It’s just too close to call.
Tuesday’s election madness added up to a steady stream of voters across the state and Democrats making major gains — enough to question who gets power in the General Assembly.
But there’s a question mark next to five races that have less than a percentage point deciding the winner, with the most nail-biting finish in Newport News’ 94th District. If the early results are certified, the losers in all five races are eligible to ask for a recount.
Now the painstaking process that the Newport News Electoral Board — and others across the state — will undertake to certify those results could help decide whether Republicans will retain power over the House of Delegates, or if Democrats will take the reins.
As of Wednesday afternoon, as absentee ballots in one Northern Virginia district were recorded, vote totals showed that Republicans held 51 seats and Democrats had 49 in the House of Delegates. That ratio was, hours before, 50-50.
Results are still unofficial until certified by local electoral boards across the state. In Newport News, the certification process could be significant. As of last night, when precinct chief officers called in results, the 94th District race between incumbent Republican Del. David Yancey and Democrat Shelly Simonds boiled down to just 12 votes, with Yancey coming out on top. Of the five races in question, it had the smallest difference in votes cast.
After four hours of comparing the two separate reports election officers prepare after the polls close — the one telephoned in to the Electoral Board, the second a form requiring signatures and detailed counts of voters, ballots marked properly, write-ins and spoiled ballots — and checking all those numbers against tapes from each precinct’s tabulating machine, Yancey’s margin widened by one vote. Simonds’ total in the River precinct turned out to be 370, not 371. A clerical error on one report, after checking against the tape, was to blame.
Simonds said she’ll be asking for a recount, which she can only do once the electoral board certifies Tuesday’s votes — which will happen Monday, at the latest. Recounts can only be requested when no more than 1 percent of votes divide the winner and loser.
Verifiying the votes and the decision over Newport News’ 50 provisional ballots could turn the tide. Provisional ballots are offered to voters who don’t have an ID or think they should be registered at a precinct but don’t show up on the poll books.
“The margin in the 94th is so close, the provisional ballots may be decisive,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at University of Mary Washington.
In a statement, Speaker-designee Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, said Wednesday’s canvass showed both Yancey and Del. Tim Hugo, R-Fairfax County, also in a close race, had been re-elected.
“Our majority will be smaller, but our resolve and commitment to good governance based on conservative principles remains strong and unwavering,” Cox said in a formal statement.
He said big spending by outside groups made for the most difficult political environment in decades.
The full verification process happens after each election and involves a full reconciliation of precinct reports and tabulating machine tapes. The board went through all of the city’s 45 precincts and the tally of absentee ballots, checking total votes, reported votes for each candidate, write-ins and over votes, to make sure all the numbers make sense.
No provisional ballot is counted until the local electoral board certifies it was cast by a properly registered voter. Of Newport News’ 50 provisionals, nine were people who forgot their photo IDs, 19 were from people whose names couldn’t be found in the poll book and 22 were for a variety of other reasons, like confusion over an absentee ballot.
Electoral Board Chairman Sean Devlin said those provisional ballots likely won’t be voted on until Monday.
On Wednesday, election officials were diligent. Only every once in a while was the recitation of numbers — total votes cast, then the number for each candidate, for write-ins and “overvotes” or spoiled ballots — interrupted by a question or a discrepancy.
“1-6-9-5,” Devlin said, as he and fellow board member Wendell Barbour looked over their separate copies of the tape from the Richneck precinct’s tabulating machine and the statement of results that poll workers filled out Tuesday night.
“I’ve got 16-96,” Barbour said.
“You sure it’s not just a five that looks like a six?” asked Newport News Registrar Vicki Lewis. She glanced down at her report, phoned in by the precinct’s chief officer while the precinct team was preparing the official statement and gathering the tape.
She looked again.
“Looks like it was an express vote,” she said, referring to the new machines that allow people with disabilities to vote if they’d rather not fill in the paper ballots.
One discrepancy solved.
And 15 minutes later, looking over the Bland precinct’s tapes, they recited the numbers for the commissioner of the revenue race:
“Boyle 173, Woodruff 57, one write-in, no overvote,” Devlin recites.
“I’ve got no write-in, one overvote,” Lewis replies.
Devlin looks again at the long paper strip of numbers.
“Yeah, no write-in, one overvote.”
The four other House races in question are in districts 27, 28, 40 and 68. In all of these, like the 94th District, opponents had less than 1 percent of votes dividing them, according to complete unofficial results from the state Department of Elections. Initially, Democrats appeared to win two, and Republicans had won two, making it a 50-50 share of seats in the House of Delegates.
But just before 1 p.m. on Wednesday, the state Department of Elections updated its vote counts, changing the winner in the race for the 40th District in Clifton to the incumbent, Republican Del. Tim Hugo. He was now winning with 50.19 percent of the vote versus his opponent, Donte Tanner’s 49.81 percent.
Democrat candidates Larry Barnett and Joshua Cole, losing candidates in districts 27 and 28, respectively, will decide whether they want recounts once votes are certified, but it’s likely they will, according to their campaign managers.
Republican Del. Manoli Loupassi, of Chesterfield’s 68th District, lost to Democrat Dawn Adams by 326 votes, unofficial results show. On Wednesday, he said it was too early to say whether he’ll ask for a recount.
With the 94th District included, four Democrats and one Republican are eligible to ask for recounts if, after the results become official, the difference is no more than 1 percent. There are no automatic recounts in Virginia.
Once Simonds asks for a recount, the process is laid out clearly, but the exact timeline is not.
House of Delegates candidates who want a recount must submit their request with the local circuit court within ten days after election results are certified.
Once someone formally asks for a recount, the chief judge in the circuit is required within seven days to hold a preliminary hearing, according to a manual on the Department of Elections website.
The chief judge of the circuit court and two others appointed by the state Supreme Court’s chief justice would make up the recount court. That court would determine exactly how the recount would happen.
That court then appoints “recount officials” from a pool of election officers who worked precincts in question. The court also decides where the recounting will happen.
Once the votes are recounted, the court certifies the winner — the person with the most votes.
It’s not clear, after the initial requirements, how long this process could take. Even after the court certifies a winner, a losing candidate could contest those results.
“The current estimates are for 51-49, Republican advantage, so you know, the Democrats would need to win (the 94th) and prevail in another one — that is still uncertain,” Farnsworth said.
