DOMINION Energy Virginia plans to produce more electricity from solar power and clean-burning natural gas over the next 15 years as it continues to wean itself from coal and reduce its carbon footprint. But another controversial source of electricity isn’t going away anytime soon.
If Dominion gets its way, nuclear power—which is currently used to produce about one-third of all the electricity the utility produces—will be an integral part of the energy mix for at least the next four decades.
And that’s a good thing, because renewables will not be able to pick up the slack left by the imminent retirement of several aging oil- and coal-fired plants.
According to Dominion’s 15-year forecast filed with the State Corporation Commission, “more than 100,000 acres of solar (photovoltaic) facilities would be needed to match the nuclear units’ annual power output.” For comparison, the controversial proposed solar farm in Spotsylvania will cover just 3,500 acres.
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According to Dominion’s 15-year regulatory filing, the utility intends to increase solar power by 50 percent over 15 years. But even after doing that, the utility’s dependence on renewable sources of energy will still amount to less than 10 percent of its total generating capacity.
Oil- and coal-fired plants that currently generate about 3,000 megawatts of electricity will be mothballed, but they will continue to be held in “cold reserve” as insurance in case a natural disaster, terrorist attack or other major calamity requires that they be fired up again.
Several new natural gas plants and the two major pipelines currently in the works will increase the percentage of electricity generated by clean-burning natural gas. But nuclear power is destined to remain a key component of Virginia’s energy mix for the next 40 years.
Dominion plans to ask the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission to extend its licenses for its 1970s-era nuclear plants at North Anna and Surry for a second 20-year period, and will spend about $4 billion to upgrade them. If approved, North Anna 1 and 2—which are licensed by the NRC until 2038 and 2040—would remain online until 2058 and 2060. Surry 1 and 2 near Newport News wouldn’t be retired until 2052 and 2053.
The utility expects no opposition from the NRC, and the reason is obvious. “Our nuclear power stations have proven to be among the most efficient and most reliable sources of electricity in our fleet,” Daniel Stoddard, Dominion’s chief nuclear officer, said last fall.
There are 99 nuclear power reactors in 60 power plants currently operating in 30 states, with two new ones expected to come online by 2021. They account for nearly 20 percent of all the electricity generated in the U.S. and 63 percent of the nation’s carbon-free electricity.
PJM Interconnection—the operator of the nation’s largest electric power grid that serves 65 million people in 13 states, including Virginia and the District of Columbia—is currently stress-testing the grid under various scenarios, including possible future fuel supply disruptions. One of the advantages of nuclear power, besides reliably providing baseload power 24/7, is that some reactors can store up to two years of fuel.
That’s important, because in January 2014 when the polar vortex plunged much of the U.S. into sub-freezing temperatures, the North Atlantic grid came close to a breakdown, which was averted by the ready availability of nuclear energy. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corp., problems getting enough natural gas to the Mid-Atlantic states through congested pipelines led to a loss of 11,000 megawatts of power just when demand for electricity hit an all-time high.
In early January of this year, during another bout of unseasonably cold weather exacerbated by a bomb cyclone during which temperatures plunged below freezing, two-thirds of the power distributed by PJM was generated by coal and nuclear plants, with coal providing 37 percent of the power and nuclear 27 percent, followed by 22 percent for natural gas and 2 percent for wind power.
Advanced small-scale modular nuclear reactors, which are currently under development, could provide the crucial link when supplies of renewable, but intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar fail to meet demand. The U.S. Department of Energy, which is providing “substantial support” to these efforts, expects that smaller and cheaper nuclear reactors will be in commercial use within the next 10 or 15 years, so don’t count nuclear power out just yet.