Open Seats Create Fundraising Rush

Redistricting-generated open seats have led to a record number of newcomers to stake early claims on the 2023 General Assembly elections. The first chart below shows the number of non-incumbent candidates in each election cycle who raised $35,000 or more during the six months before the start of the election year.

Why is this happening? In the past, newcomers had limited opportunities to win a seat in Virginia's General Assembly. Incumbents held several key advantages, including name recognition and fundraising. In my cycles, the best chance for newcomers involved sitting legislators who retired. But this year opportunities for newcomers are manifold. In December 2021, the State Supreme Court approved new districts without regard to where legislators resided. The resulting maps paired dozens of legislators in the same districts, opening up big swaths of the state for the taking. At last count, 28 of the 100 House of Delegates districts have no incumbent running and eight of the 40 state Senate seat are open. Sensing opportunity, a record number of newcomers began raising money before the election year had started.

Note: Amounts shown is money raised from July 1 through December 31 of the year before the election for Virginia legislative elections. Amount raised includes cash, in-kind donations, and loans. Excluded are transfers between committees controlled by the same candidate. Dollar amounts from past cycles have been adjusted upward for inflation. The list considers only those candidates who are not current members of the General Assembly. Candidates who organized their campaign committees after the start of the year were not required to file and are not listed.

Source: Campaign finance disclosures filed with the Virginia Department of Elections.