Partisan Lean of State Districts in 2022

Results from congressional midterm elections last week in Virginia show Democrats fared better in newly drawn state legislative districts compared to estimates from last year's gubernatorial election. The new districts, drawn in December 2021, will get their first real test a year from now when all 140 General Assembly seats will be on the ballot.

Senate

House of Delegates

Definitions:

• Strong D: Vote margin greater than or equal to +20D
• Lean D: Vote margin between +5D and +20D
• Competitive: Vote margin between +5D and +5R
• Lean R: Vote margin between +5R and +20R
• Strong R: Vote margin greater than or equal to +20R

Methodology: The Virginia Department of Elections does not tabulate the results of gubernatorial or congressional elections by state legislative districts. VPAP calculated the 2022 congressional results using the results of precincts assigned to each legislative district. These results, for the first time, included absentee ballots. For precincts that are split between two state legislative districts, VPAP apportioned the votes according to the share of registered voters in each legislative district. For the 2021 gubernatorial election, VPAP estimated district results using its own formula for reallocating absentee ballots back to the precincts where the voters reside.