Redistricting Winners and Losers

In the 2021 redistricting, state lawmakers had zero say how lines were drawn. This visual shows if sitting legislators ended up with districts that would improve (or dampen) their chances for re-election in 2023.

Note: District partisanship based on VPAP's estimate of results in the 2021 gubernatorial election. (See VPAP Index.) The length of the arrow represents the change in the partisan vote margin between the old district and the new district. The vertical line indicates the number of percentage points separating Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the district that an incumbent represented at the time of the November 2021 election. The tip of the arrow indicates the margin in the newly drawn district where the same incumbent would run for re-election in November 2023.

Example: If a candidate's new district is 55% Republican/45% Democratic, and the old district was 60% Republican/40% Democratic, the calculation would be:

Margin Change
(new district margin) − (old district margin)
(55% R − 45% D) − (60% R − 40% D)
10% R − 20% R
-10% R
+10% D

The new district has a vote margin that is 10 percentage points more Democratic than the old district.