Day-by-day Partisanship of Early Votes

Estimates of daily early voting show a fairly consistent pattern of partisanship throughout October, with the share of likely Democratic voters around 60% while likely Republican voters have accounted for nearly 40% every day.

Notes: Share of early votes cast each day by party. Party estimated for registered voters who have cast early ballots so far this year. VPAP matched the voter IDs in the Virginia Dept. of Elections early voting file with data provided by L2 Political, which estimates the likely party of voters based on factors such as past participation in primary elections and demographics. Virginia does not require voter registration by party, so estimates must be used.

Early ballots cast on Saturday and Sunday are included in the Friday count to avoid large swings in the data due to the small number of ballots cast on weekends.

Sources: Virginia Department of Elections early voting file, and L2 Political.

Nov. 6, 2023