In 2021, Rural Voters Returned to Form

A surge of voters in rural Virginia helped propel Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin to victory last year. VPAP's analysis found that presidential voters from rural counties historically have been more likely to show up the following year to vote for Virginia's governor, compared to voters in urban or suburban localities. The exception was 2017, when President Trump’s election motivated voters in urban areas, particularly in Northern Virginia.

Voter Retention (% point difference from statewide average)

"Voter Retention" compares the number of votes cast in a presidential election and the ballots cast the following year in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. For instance, if a locality had voter turnout of 100,000 in 2020 and 75,000 in 2021, the voter retention would be 75%.

Methodology: The chart above looks at the voter retention rate in localities based on population density. The chart compares how voter retention in urban, suburban and rural localities differs from the statewide average in the last four gubernatorial elections. A positive number indicates the retention was higher than the statewide average; a lower number indicates retention was lower than the statewide average.

Source: Election Results from the Virginia Department of Elections and VPAP research.